OVERVIEW
The humanitarian situation in Somalia has
become increasingly fragile towards the end of 2016, especially in the northern
regions. Drought conditions are deepening in Puntland and Somaliland, and have
expanded to southern and central regions, including Gedo, Hiraan, Galgaduud and
Lower Juba. The Deyr rainy season, which usually extends from October to
December, has so far been poor, and high temperatures combined with limited
amounts of rain in October 2016 that have led to drought conditions in most of
Somalia, ranging from moderate to extreme. During the month of October, most
regions registered less than half of the usual rainfall. Crop and pasture
losses are widespread, and water shortages common. Substantial increases in
water prices are being reported in the majority of regions, with price hikes of
as much as 66 per cent in Xudur, Bakool region, and 58 per cent in Laas
Caanood, Sool region. No significant rainfall is expected in the coming weeks
and the drought conditions are likely to intensify until the next rainy season
expected in April 2017. Water levels in Juba and Shabelle rivers are below
normal for this time of year due to limited rain in the Ethiopian highlands.
Water levels are expected to decline further, putting further stress on
communities dependent on irrigation for growing crops.
Two out of five Somalis are already
acutely food insecure and prospects for the Deyr season cereal production is
bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas. A scale-up of humanitarian
assistance is required to prevent further deterioration of the situation. If it
continues at current levels, with around 1.6 million people reached per month,
the number of people who will be in ‘crisis’ or ‘emergency’ is likely to
increase, potentially to a drastic scale. A 20 per cent increase in number of
people who cannot meet their daily food requirements was already registered in
September 2016, up from 935,000 to 1.1 million in six months, according to the
FAO-managed Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU). The nutrition
situation has also deteriorated with over 320,000 acutely malnourished children
in need of urgent nutrition support, including treatment for more than 50,000
who are severely malnourished and far more vulnerable than any other group.
Water shortages may also trigger further outbreaks of water borne diseases.
This follows a major outbreak of AWD/Cholera in the region in early 2016, with
Somalia hit most severely, at a scale not seen in recent years. More than
13,600 cases of AWD/Cholera were registered from January to September 2016, up
from 5,300 registered cases in 2015.
On 12 November 2016, the President of the
Federal Government issued an appeal to all Somalis and the international
community for support to drought stricken communities throughout the country.
Appeals have also been issued by authorities in Jubaland (2 October), Puntland
(5 October), and Somaliland (17 November).
The impact of the drought and the demand
on humanitarian resources has been further magnified by a number of emerging crises,
including an increase in conflict-related displacements and refugee returns
from Kenya.
http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/consequences-drought-somalia-november-2016
Somalia Drought Watch (Issued: 15 November 2016)
Key messages
- Moderate to Extreme drought conditions are being experienced in the country. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the next rains, which are anticipated in April 2017.
- During the month of October 2016, most parts of Somalia recorded poor rainfall amounts, with most regions registering 25 to 50 percent of average.
- Vegetation conditions worsened and drought conditions strengthened and continued to affect pasture, water, livestock and crops, with vegetation cover (NDVI) 60 to 70 percent of average in southern regions.
- Prospects of Deyr cereal production is bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas.
- Juba and Shabelle river levels are currently below normal; the resulting competition for irrigation water is likely to lead to deliberate breakage of embankments, adversely affecting downstream users.
Drought conditions
Hot and dry weather conditions persisted in most parts of Somalia in September and October 2016. High temperatures combined with lack of rainfall, caused water stress to crops, livestock and water resources. This has led to drought conditions in most parts of the country, ranging from moderate to extreme.
In this bulletin the following definition is adapted. “Drought is an extended period of time during which fresh water availability, particularly rainfall and soil moisture are below average, and temperatures and winds are high”, which specifies the natural phenomena, the hydro-meteorological drought. Hence, the main factors causing drought are rainfall deficit, excess temperature and deficit in soil moisture.
The drought condition map (Map 1) has been produced based on observed rainfall and satellite (rainfall and vegetation) data sets as well as field reports.
http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-drought-watch-issued-15-november-2016
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